Nothing warms the web-geek's heart quite like a new, improved, and W3C approved version of HTML. Understandably, it takes quite a while for a whole new system to be created as it has to remain on the cutting edge until its release. It takes even longer for wide acceptance and use. HTML 5 is said to be poised for the W3C Recommendation Candidate status in 2012, but right now, it's still being hammered out. If all goes according to plan, HTML 5 should be an official W3C Recommendation by 2022.
However, parts of HTML 5 will continue to sneak out of the development and into our hands via browser producing companies including useful components here or there, and as the internet populace's average browser version creeps up to accept these new features, they will grow in prominence on websites. Browsers are back-compatible, so it's not like it's an either-or kind of situation. Simply, it's a matter of letting people catch up to the technology as it organically grows.
HTML 5 is going to contain some very exciting developments, but what may be the most upsetting is its impact on Flash, Silverlight, and streaming video on the web.
The Impact of HTML 5 on Rich Media
To begin, let's start with what HTML 5 is supposed to do for the web developer and user. This version aims to deliver rich media content through your browser without the use of proprietary software. To be more specific, the HTML protocol will be able to natively stream audio, video, or dynamic web content on its own accord without assistance from Adobe's Flash, Microsoft's Silverlight, or proprietary codecs. It's the idea that things should be standardized and open to encourage developers and create a less frustrating experience for users.
HTML 5 could very well be a major threat to Flash and Silverlight. If it provides a better, open, and free option to produce rich media on the web, then developers will eat it up. One of the weaknesses of Flash and Silverlight is that the content creators are going to be on the cutting edge of the technology, but users won't necessarily have the latest version. It can be frustrating to a user to see that they need to update yet another media delivery system and that they will need to update two others for another site. The across-the-board accessibility of HTML 5 could definitely marginalize Flash and Silverlight as a result.
One major blow to Adobe's Flash would be the native video handling. Flash-based movie players are popping up all over the web to the point it has replaced other video players like Windows Media Player. While HTML 5 could take over this function, it's running into trouble with it already. As of right now, there's no codec that everyone agrees on. Some want their own codec to be the HTML standard while others would rather have no codec at all because it could knock a leg out from under their business.
Where It Ends Up
If HTML 5 finds a codec, is fully developed, and becomes a wide-spread technology, there's always the chance that it will eliminate Flash and Silverlight, but it's not very likely. HTML protocol moves much slower than a corporation's desire for money, so Flash and Silverlight can find new niches to fill and adapt their technologies to do what HTML 5 can't.
The good news for consumers (and potentially the companies) is that the changeover will encourage Adobe and Microsoft to step up their game and produce something even better. It will also give web developers an alternative which they can use at their discretion. If implementing a video with HTML is better in a situation than Flash or Silverlight, why bother with the proprietary stuff? On the other hand, there will probably be situations where proprietary technologies will do a better job.
It's very likely that the availability of options will create a symbiotic relationship between all of them, and users will benefit the most as all sides race to produce the best possible experience on the web.
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